What: (13) Alabama (3-1) at (8) Georgia (4-0)
When: Saturday October 3rd (3:30 EST)
Where: Athens, GA Sanford Stadium
TV: CBS (Gary Danielson and Verne Lundquist)
Line: UGA (-2) O/U: 53.5
When Alabama comes to Athens to take on Georgia Saturday afternoon, the eyes of the college football world will be glued to the action between the hedges. Georgia, the number eight team in the country, comes into the game with an undefeated record after winning four straight games versus less than stellar competition. Alabama, ranked 13th in the most current AP Poll, comes in at 3-1 after losing 43-37 to Mississippi a couple of weeks ago.
This is a game that features a little bit of everything; a storyline for every type of viewer. It’s a game that pits two programs that are more similar than most people realize. Think, for a moment, about these SEC numbers coming from the two programs since Mark Richt arrived at Georgia in 2001.
– AP 1st Team All-SEC Selections: 1.) Alabama (49) 2.) Georgia (47)
– Freshman All-SEC: 2.) Alabama (37) 2.) Georgia (37)
– NFL Draftees: 2.) Georgia (79) 4.) Alabama (73)
– 1st Round NFL Draftees: 1.) Alabama (17) 4.) Georgia (12)
Needless to say, these schools produce top-quality talent year in and year out from the SEC. However, the needles for each program are pointing in different directions. While Georgia has a rising stock with a needle pointing up, Alabama is dealing with some slight adversity for the first time in a while.
In fact, if Georgia is favored at the time of kickoff (two point favorites as of Thursday) they will be part of history before the game is even decided. Dating back to 2009, Alabama has been the Las Vegas favorite for 72 consecutive football games.
72. Consecutive. Games.
The last time the Crimson Tide played a game as the underdog was in the 2009 SEC Championship Game versus Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators. The Tide, as five point dogs, won the game by 19 points going away en route to a National Championship. Georgia wasn’t going to sneak up on a favored Alabama anyway, but Saban and company as the underdog? My oh my.
Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
Nick Saban has long been a proponent of slowing down the college game. In 2014, he coined the “ten-second rule” trying to limit the effectiveness of no-huddle offenses citing player safety issues. Under Nick Saban, Alabama usually averages around 60-65 plays per game. But, through four games this season, the Crimson Tide have averaged an astounding 79 snaps per game while Georgia averages just over 59 per contest. It’ll be very interesting to see how the two teams use tempo to have success with the ball.
Georgia has admitted that they will want to try and speed things up on Saturday but they will need to be careful that doesn’t backfire. Georgia hasn’t been impressive in the time of possession category (26:04/game) mostly due to their quick strike offense this season, but if they don’t allow their defense the time to rest between possessions on Saturday, Derrick Henry may have the same kind of success against UGA that Eddie Lacy did in the 2012 SEC title game.
Bama Getting Defensive
One of the most crucial aspects of any football game is the battle in the trenches; this game is the model for all others in that category. Georgia features “one of the better rushing attacks” Alabama has seen in “quite a while” according to Nick Saban and the Dawgs will likely lean heavily on that rushing attack once again come Saturday. Alabama will counter the running back trio of Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, and Keith Marshall with their ferocious front seven.
Since the beginning of last season, Alabama has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns (7) in FBS and the second fewest rushing yards per game (92.3). During that time, the Crimsons Tide defense led by defensive coordinator (and UGA graduate) Kirby Smart, has allowed just over 18 points per game, good for seventh best in the country.
Oh. And just for good measure. The Alabama defense has allowed one rush of over ten yards inside the tackle box this season. One.
Chubb Vs Henry
The running backs opposing each other in this game are undoubtedly two of the best in the entire country, and the numbers support that claim. Nick Chubb, as most most Georgia fans know by now, has rushed for over 100 yards in 12 straight games. With one more such game, the superb sophomore can break the school record set way back in 1980-1981 by then freshman Herschel Walker.
While that streak is indeed impressive, it’s perhaps just as impressive that Alabama running back Derrick Henry (who was highly recruited by UGA) has a rushing touchdown in each of his last nine games. That’s good for the longest streak in the SEC.
Third is the Word
Again, I’m not going out on a limb here, but this game will likely be impacted in a huge way by what happens on third downs. Alabama is very similar to Georgia when it comes to third down offense and defense this season. Here’s how the third down stats look for both teams through four games.
Third Down Offense: Alabama- 21/57 (37%) Georgia- 11/31 (35%)
Third Down Defense: Alabama- 19/67 (28%) Georgia- 20/65 (31%)
So, to sum up these numbers. Neither team is very good at converting on third downs so far in 2015. However, both teams excel in preventing opponents from converting on third down.
Chip Towers of the Atlanta Journal Constitution spoke to Saturday’s CBS commentator Gary Danielson earlier in the week about this match up and Danielson seemed to agree that this game would “turn into a third down game.” Because of that, Danielson and many others believe the two second-tier running backs will impact the game more than expected. Both Sony Michel and Kenyan Drake thrive in space and both should get the opportunities to work in said space on those all-important third down snaps.
Huge Weekend for Recruiting
Sure Alabama and Georgia will be playing on the field Saturday, but they have been facing off outside the lines for years in the recruiting war that is the SEC. A number of high profile recruits who are considering both Georgia and Alabama are visiting Athens for the showdown this weekend. The list includes:
– Greg Little (#1 OL- Allen, Texas)
– Mecole Hardman (#1 ATH- Elberton, GA)
– Issac Nauta (#1 TE- Buford, GA)
– Kyle Davis (#1 WR- Lawrenceville, GA)
– Derrick Brown (5 Star DT- Buford, GA)
While all of these guys will be taking in the action from the seats inside of Sanford Stadium, at least one highly ranked Georgia and Alabama recruit will be watching from elsewhere.
Robertson via 247 sports
“It’s going to come down to the offensive line of Georgia, and the defensive line of Alabama. In the end, I got Alabama 27-17. Their front seven is just too good, especially against the run.”
Ben Bolton covers Alabama for the Alabama Sports Network, he too offered a prediction.
“It’s a matchup of similar teams matching strength against strength. Alabama is tested with a loss they gave to Ole Miss. Georgia hasn’t played a good team yet. Alabama wins in a close one in Athens.”
Sport by Travis 